Lecturer, University of Essex
Office Hours Summer Term: Mondays 4-5pm & Fridays 11am-12pm
Department of Economics
Wivenhoe Park
Colchester
CO4 3SQ
rgray AT essex.ac.uk
01206 872754
Department of Economics
Wivenhoe Park
Colchester
CO4 3SQ
rgray AT essex.ac.uk
01206 872754
Working Papers
Taking Technology to Task: The Skill Content of Technological Change in Early Twentieth Century United States (Submitted)
This paper presents a new picture of the labor market effects of technological change in pre-WWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrification of the manufacturing sector led to a "hollowing out" of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. To conduct this analysis, a new dataset detailing the task composition of occupations in the United States for the period 1880-1940 was constructed using information about the task content of over 4,000 occupations from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (1949). This unique data was used to measure the skill content of electrification in U.S. manufacturing. OLS estimates show that electrification increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for the dexterity-intensive jobs which comprised the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skill-biased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage differentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950. To overcome any threat to the exogeneity of the electricity measure, due for example to endogenous technological change, 2 instrumental variable strategies were developed. The first uses cross-state differences in the timing of adoption of state-level utility regulation while the second exploits differences in state-level geography that encouraged the development of hydro-power generation and thus made electricity cheaper. The results from these regressions support the main conclusions of the paper.
This paper presents a new picture of the labor market effects of technological change in pre-WWII United States. I show that, similar to the recent computerization episode, the electrification of the manufacturing sector led to a "hollowing out" of the skill distribution whereby workers in the middle of the distribution lost out to those at the extremes. To conduct this analysis, a new dataset detailing the task composition of occupations in the United States for the period 1880-1940 was constructed using information about the task content of over 4,000 occupations from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (1949). This unique data was used to measure the skill content of electrification in U.S. manufacturing. OLS estimates show that electrification increased the demand for clerical, numerical, planning and people skills relative to manual skills while simultaneously reducing relative demand for the dexterity-intensive jobs which comprised the middle of the skill distribution. Thus, early twentieth century technological change was unskill-biased for blue collar tasks but skill-biased on aggregate. These results are in line with the downward trend in wage differentials within U.S. manufacturing up to 1950. To overcome any threat to the exogeneity of the electricity measure, due for example to endogenous technological change, 2 instrumental variable strategies were developed. The first uses cross-state differences in the timing of adoption of state-level utility regulation while the second exploits differences in state-level geography that encouraged the development of hydro-power generation and thus made electricity cheaper. The results from these regressions support the main conclusions of the paper.
| gray_electricity_final.pdf |
Review of my electricity paper by Chris Colvin:
http://nephist.wordpress.com/?p=256&preview=true
Geography is not Destiny. Geography, Institutions and Literacy in Pre-Industrial England (with Gregory Clark) Submitted
Geography created substantial differences in rural inequality across pre-industrial England. The grain cultivating south-east was unequal, with a large farmer elite hiring many landless laborers. The pastoral north-west was equal, with small farmers dominant, and few hired workers. Sokoloff and Engerman (2000), argue that similar differences in social structure between plantation agricultures in the southern Americas, and family farming in the north, explain the rise of schooling in the north, and its absence in the south. Did geography have their predicted effect on educational attainment in pre-industrial England? We show that while rural literacy varied substantially across England in 1810 and later, it was independent of geography. Culture was the force that drove literacy, not geography. Geography is not destiny.
| geography_2012_final.pdf |
Works in Progress:
"Moving on Up: Immigration and Native Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1870-1920"
"Did Immigration Cause Crime in Nineteenth Century American Cities?"
"Moving on Up: Immigration and Native Occupational Mobility in the United States, 1870-1920"
"Did Immigration Cause Crime in Nineteenth Century American Cities?"
